Analysis and forecast on the trend of machinery in

2022-07-22
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Analysis and forecast on the trend of the machinery industry in the second half of 2008. However, the sales revenue of the machinery industry has maintained a growth rate of more than 25%, and the industry fundamentals are still good. Since 2008, the growth rate of the whole society's fixed asset investment has been basically the same as that of the same period last year. However, considering the group model calculation and the analysis of inflation, the actual growth rate is lower than that of 2007. 13. After confirming that the power supply is safe under the specified voltage and grounding - in May, the import and export of China's mechanical and electrical products showed a trend of accelerated growth. The export of mechanical and electrical products was not affected by the global economic environment, and the domestic demand for imported mechanical and electrical products was still strong

the rise of production factors will squeeze the profit space of the industry, and the steel price will still rise slightly. Since the second half of 2007, the prices of raw materials and fuels, especially steel, have increased significantly, seriously affecting the profit space of industrial products. Based on the price trend of iron ore and coke, steel prices may continue to rise slightly in the future

key sub industries. Some construction machinery products are slowing down, but the export of construction machinery is still growing rapidly, and the international competitiveness is gradually established. Machine tools represent the prosperity of the whole machinery industry, and the trend of import substitution is obvious; The policy supports give the industry special advantages and high safety margin. The shipbuilding industry is at the peak of a business cycle, and the decline of prosperity is inevitable

I. the growth rate of the machinery industry slowed down slightly

according to the statistical data of the machine economy, the sales output value of the whole machinery industry (excluding the automobile and electrical and electrical industry) reached 732.4 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 28.32%, which was slightly less than 30.05% of the whole year in 2007. The export delivery value reached 175billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.24%, which was also lower than the 29.4% of the whole year in 2007. Since April, the growth rate of the industry's sales output value and export growth have slowed down slightly

in 2007, the machinery industry realized a total profit of 27.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.63%, while in 2008, the machinery industry realized a total profit of 9.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.99%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly. The slowdown of sales revenue growth and the decline of gross profit margin are the direct reasons for the slowdown of industry profit growth. However, in general, the sales revenue of the machinery industry has maintained a growth rate of more than 25%, and the industry fundamentals are still good

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2008, the growth rate of industrial added value of the machinery industry also slowed down. In terms of molecular industries, the growth rate of transportation equipment and general equipment industries is relatively stable. The growth rate of instrument, office machinery and special equipment industries decreased significantly in April, but the growth rate rebounded significantly in May

the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the machinery industry dropped from a high level

the machinery industry is highly positively correlated with fixed asset investment, and is a typical investment driven cyclical industry. The higher growth rate of fixed asset investment has driven the rapid development of the whole machinery industry. Since 2004, the fixed asset investment in the three major machinery sub industries: general equipment, special equipment and transportation equipment manufacturing has maintained a high growth rate, which is higher than that of the national fixed asset investment. Since 2008, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society has been basically the same as that in the same period last year. However, considering the inflation factor, the actual growth rate of fixed asset investment is lower than that in 2007

from the perspective of fixed asset investment by industry, the growth rate of investment in special equipment manufacturing industry remains unchanged; The investment growth rate of transportation equipment manufacturing industry dropped from the high level in March; However, the investment growth rate of the general equipment industry has shown an obvious downward trend, which is worth noting

both import and export accelerated

according to the data provided by the customs, in February, due to seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival and the snow disaster in southern China, the export growth slowed down significantly, but in February, the import and export growth accelerated, better than most people expected. In May, China's export growth rate was 28.1%, while the import growth rate was 40%. Due to the rise of international commodity prices, import prices rose sharply, driving imports. The actual import growth rate may be about 20%

in may, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products also reached 33.07%, which was significantly higher than the 27.6% level in 2007. Instead of declining, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products showed a trend of accelerated growth. The drag on the export of mechanical and electrical products by the global economic environment was not obvious. In May, the import growth rate of mechanical and electrical products also reached 27.3%, which was significantly higher than the 16.7% level in 2007, indicating that the domestic market still has a strong demand for imported mechanical and electrical products

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in May, the ex factory price of industrial products rose by 8.2% year on year, and the purchase price of raw materials, fuels and power rose by 11.9%, of which the ex factory price of crude oil rose by 30.9% year on year, and the ex factory price of coal mining and washing industry rose by 24% year on year. It is necessary to establish and improve the comprehensive evaluation criteria and industry standards for plastic granulator equipment 1%, and the ex factory price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 26.7% year-on-year

the purchase price index of raw materials, fuels and power continued to rise, and the rising range exceeded the ex factory price index of industrial products. Since October 2007, the difference between the two has been further enlarged, which will inevitably squeeze the profit space of industrial products. The rise of CPI, which reflects the price of means of living, will also bring some upward pressure to the wage level

it can be seen that since January 2007, the gap between the purchasing price index of ferrous materials and the ex factory price index of mechanical industrial products has widened sharply. Since September 2007, this speed has also achieved different constant speed friction and wear testing machines by changing gears, and the purchasing price index of fuel power has started to rise sharply. As of March, 2008, the ex factory price index of machinery industry products rose slightly, and the cost pressure of the machinery industry has not been further transferred to the downstream, which will inevitably affect the profitability of the machinery industry

from the historical data (without considering other factors), the change of gross profit margin of machinery listed companies slightly lags behind the change of steel price. Steel prices reached a relative peak during, and the gross profit margin of machinery listed companies in 2005 also decreased to the lowest point in recent years. However, since 2006, although the steel price has been rising, the gross profit margin of the enterprise has been rising, which is related to the technological progress of the enterprise and the continuous introduction of new products with high gross profit margin

in the first quarter, the enterprise may have the raw materials and spare parts purchased before the price rise, and the enterprise may also have time to adjust the product price in the future. As the transmission of the steel price rise will have a certain time lag, the specific impact of the steel price rise on the industry gross profit margin and the future trend of the industry gross profit margin remain to be seen

steel prices will still rise slightly

iron ore prices are expected to fall back from high levels. From January to April this year, the newly added raw iron ore in China's large and medium-sized mines can fully cover the iron ore required for China's new steel production. In addition to the newly added part of imported iron ore, China's iron ore supply exceeded demand by 23.4459 million tons in January. The high interest rate of iron ore mining has led overseas iron ore companies to increase production. In May, FMG Australia has built an annual production capacity of 50million tons of iron ore, and FMG will provide about 15million tons of iron ore to the global market in the next few months; In addition to vale, other mines in Brazil will also provide about 6million tons of new resources in the second half of the year

from January to April, the supply and demand of the global iron ore seaborne trade market were basically balanced, and the supply of resources was slightly greater than the demand. In the second half of 2008, the iron ore price may fall back at a high level. However, considering that the three major mining companies account for more than 70% of the global seaborne trade resources of iron ore, they have a high degree of concentration and strong ability to adjust the market supply-demand relationship, it is unlikely that the iron ore price will fall sharply

in recent years, the sharp rise in shipping costs is also one of the reasons for the rising price of iron ore. Recently, there has also been an unexpected avalanche in the iron ore shipping market

it is said that due to the sudden suspension of iron ore pallet chartering business by Chinese steel mills, the ocean freight from Brazil and Australia to China plunged by 14.89% and 31.53% respectively in the week from June 9 to 13. The rational regression of ocean freight also contributes to the fall of iron ore prices

the coke supply is tight, and the price will continue to rise. Coke is an important raw material for steelmaking, and the sharp rise in the price of coke is also an important reason for the continuous rise in the price of steel. Producing 1 ton of steel requires 0.4 to 0.5 tons of coke. With the continuation of the tight supply of domestic coking coal, its price has the power to rise further. At the beginning of June, the northern coke market showed a sharp rise again, with an increase of about 300 yuan/ton

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