Analysis and forecast of tractor market operation

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Analysis and forecast of tractor market operation in 2020

according to the statistics of the enterprise management committee of China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association, the output of large and medium-sized tractors of key enterprises in January was 103000, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year; The sales volume was 114000 sets, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, which was much higher than the output level. The export sales volume was 8825 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%

in recent years, the agricultural machinery industry has entered a low-speed development stage, and the "new crown" epidemic broke out at the beginning of 2020, which has a great impact on the domestic and international economy. The tractor market in the first half of the year has the following characteristics:

1 The performance of the industry market was first depressed and then improved

the sales volume of the tractor industry decreased sharply in March due to the impact of the epidemic situation. However, after March, with the improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, farmers' difficulties in going out to work, more return to farming, and the expectation of rising prices of grain and cash crops, the market demand in spring around the country broke out intensively in the month, and the market sales volume increased rapidly, driving the year-on-year growth of the sales volume in the month. The monthly sales volume of large wheel trailers with more than 100 horsepower was 26700 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%; The sales volume of horsepower medium wheel trailers was 87500 units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%

2. Backbone enterprises actively returned to work and production, providing a strong guarantee for spring farming production

with their own and social resource advantages, backbone agricultural machinery enterprises actively promoted the return to work and production under the premise of supporting protective measures during the epidemic period. After March, the production capacity was restored in an all-round way, quickly making up the early backwardness orders, and effectively meeting the production needs of spring farming

according to the data in the row table, the sales volume of Yituo, Zhongda and Dazhou tractors increased by 22.9%, Lovol by 26.3%, Dongfeng by 11.2%, Changfa by 19.9% and wode by 108.4% year on year, all of which achieved substantial growth

3. Favorable policies help the development of agricultural machinery this year, the state continued to promote preferential policies for agriculture, increased policy support for agriculture and agricultural mechanization, and intensively released a series of preferential policies and measures for agriculture, such as the implementation opinions on one kind of destructive inspection parts, scrapping and renewal subsidies, the Northeast Black land conservation tillage plan, the 2020 agricultural production development project, which boosted the confidence in the development of agricultural mechanization and effectively supported the development of the agricultural machinery market

the subsidy fund for the purchase of agricultural machinery is stable at about 18billion yuan, which continues to drive demand. Some provinces are short of subsidy funds, and most provinces are relatively well off. Most provinces announced subsidy policies earlier and opened subsidy systems. The policies are clear and play a guiding role in the market. The K value has been introduced into tractors in many provinces for grading in order to reduce the phenomenon of "big horse pulling small car"

4. The product demand structure changes, and the upgrading trend is obvious

the large wheel trailer products are driven by subsoiling, deep turning, straw returning to the field projects, and the user demand power is upgraded, and the horsepower is upgraded to horsepower; For large wheeled tractors with 150 HP and above, firstly, the trend of horsepower upgrading is obvious, and the trend of accelerating the upgrading to more than 200 HP; secondly, some users consider fuel consumption, cost performance and other factors, and their demand returns to horsepower

under the guidance of subsidy policies such as no subsidy for 70/60 or 40 HP welding strength in some provinces, as well as factors such as the introduction of small chassis power up extension products by many manufacturers to guide users to upgrade at a low price, the sales of medium wheel trailer products below 50 HP continued to decline sharply, while the sales of horsepower increased rapidly

in terms of the demand structure of large and medium-sized tractors, the proportion of large and medium-sized four-wheel drive tractors continued to increase. In 2020, the proportion of large wheel drive and four-wheel drive reached 93.4%, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in 2019; The proportion of medium wheel drive and four-wheel drive reached 94.5%, an increase of 3 percentage points

5. Export sales fell by a large margin

with the expansion of the epidemic in the world, some countries (regions) have successively taken restrictive measures on the export of goods and the flow of people, and the export of agricultural machinery products has been greatly affected. According to the industry report data, the monthly export volume of large and medium-sized ships was only 8825, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, 1434 large wheel trailers were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and 7362 medium wheel trailers were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%. The export delivery value was 833million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%

6. Changes in industry concentration

the sales volume of the first three samples sent by large wheel sets for processing accounted for 62.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, showing a decentralized trend; The sales volume of the top three medium wheel trailers accounted for 63.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points, showing a centralized trend

II. Research and judgment on the situation in the second half of 2020

although the epidemic has a great impact on the domestic and international economy, there are also certain positive factors for the agricultural machinery industry this year:

1 The implementation of policies will help promote the development of the agricultural machinery industry

with the country's efforts to do a good job in grain production and increase agricultural investment, the successive implementation of various policies for benefiting and Supporting Agriculture issued in the early stage will play a positive role in boosting the market, and also contribute to the transformation and upgrading of the agricultural machinery industry and the green development of agriculture

2. The change of planting structure will drive demand growth.

the measures of "changing one season rice to two seasons rice" and "changing paddy field to shrimp field" in the South will not be increased, and no tillage sowing will be promoted in the northeast, which will increase the workload and income of agricultural machinery products, and then drive the growth of overall market demand

3. The domestic grain price is expected to be good, and the enthusiasm for growing grain has increased. The rise in international grain prices, coupled with measures such as export restrictions, has formed the expectation of rising domestic grain prices to a certain extent. The prices of the three major grain crops and major economic crops have increased to a certain extent, so the enthusiasm for growing grain has been improved, and the rehabilitation of waste land has also become a trend, which will also stimulate the demand for agricultural machinery

4. The subsidy policy remains stable year on year

the subsidy policy will still play a guiding role. At present, the subsidy standards of most provinces have been released. Although some provinces have reduced the subsidy amount of a single machine, the overall reduction range is basically within the range accepted by users; In addition, the continuous implementation of policies such as subsidies for subsoiling and deep turning operations, scrapping and renewal, and comprehensive utilization of straw are also positive factors for the agricultural machinery industry to trigger in-depth adjustment of the world industrial pattern

it is estimated that the overall market demand for tractor products in the second half of the year will be better than that in the same period last year, with an increase of about%, and the market performance of large and medium tractors may be slightly different

III. problems and suggestions

(I) problems

1 Structural imbalance in the supply of agricultural machinery

at present, the contradiction between total supply surplus and structural shortage in the agricultural machinery industry is still prominent, and there is a shortage of large-scale and intelligent high-end agricultural machinery products in domestic enterprises; However, medium and low-end product manufacturing enterprises have repeatedly entered, resulting in overcapacity and serious product homogenization. Vicious price competition has become the main means, and it is difficult to effectively promote the narrowing of the gap with the level of international advanced agricultural equipment

2. Disorderly competition in the market may intensify

in view of the situation in the first half of the year, most enterprises are optimistic about the agricultural machinery industry in the later period. Especially after all enterprises return to work and production, the supply of agricultural machinery will increase rapidly and substantially, but the situation of large industrial ownership and low machine operation income will not change significantly in the short term, which will intensify the market competition situation

3. Uncertainty of subsidy policy

this year is the last year of the three-year subsidy policy. Enterprises and circulation channels are generally worried that the annual subsidy policy will be greatly adjusted. In provinces and regions where the subsidy funds have been used up, such as Inner Mongolia and Northwest China, conservative strategies can only be adopted in the terminal sales link, which is not conducive to the normal release of market demand

4. The market judgment is too optimistic

in the first half of this year, the overall sales volume of the agricultural machinery industry increased year-on-year. Despite the support of certain positive factors, the probability of "blowout" substantial growth in the market in the second half of this year is also very small. If an enterprise is too optimistic about the market, it may have a corresponding backlog of inventory, tight or broken capital flow, and poor operation of the enterprise

(II) suggestions

1 To prevent disorderly market competition or vicious competition from damaging the overall development of the industry, it is recommended that agricultural machinery management departments at all levels further strengthen supervision, take severe punishment measures against illegal enterprises and circulation channels, strengthen the policy deterrent effect, and maintain a fair and just competition environment

2. Continuity and stability of subsidy policy

it is suggested that the annual subsidy implementation plan should not be greatly adjusted, such as the scope and standard of subsidies, so as to maintain good continuity and facilitate the normal operation of the majority of production enterprises and circulation channels

3. Accelerate the development of intelligent agricultural machinery industry

first, increase support for intelligent agricultural machinery industry, confirm the classification of intelligent agricultural machinery products as soon as possible, and promote breakthroughs in key technologies, application and promotion of intelligent agricultural machinery

second, accelerate the popularization of intelligent agricultural equipment, and increase the support for the application of equipment such as "Beidou intelligent terminal", "automatic assistance or unmanned driving of agricultural machinery" and "rapid detection of soil information"

4. Continue to optimize the industrial development pattern

at present, the agricultural machinery industry has entered the stage of industrial reshuffle. It is suggested to change the scattered and weak situation of the agricultural machinery industry through measures such as industrial policy adjustment and design of subsidy qualification access threshold, encourage key enterprises to continue to strengthen product research and development, and improve the overall level of agricultural machinery manufacturing in the country. (Enterprise Management Committee of China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association)

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