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Analysis and forecast of domestic paper market at the recently held paper newspaper cooperation and development forum and 2003 paper market information exchange meeting, relevant experts analyzed and predicted the paper market situation this year

current paper market situation

first, in order to meet the needs of the development of the newspaper industry, the paper industry has carried out large-scale technical transformation and technology introduction of equipment while adjusting the industrial structure in recent years, so that the quality of domestic paper is or has been improved by leaps and bounds, which can meet the needs of newspaper printing; Second, the paper output increased significantly, and the supply exceeded the demand, but the overall balance was basically balanced; Third, the price of paper tends to be stable, and the market is basically healthy, orderly and stable

in recent years, China's paper industry has entered a period of leapfrog development, with a new batch of world-class large-scale paper-making equipment. The paper quality has reached the level of developed countries. At present, the output of new paper machines has accounted for more than half of the domestic paper, completely changing the situation that the overall quality of China's paper is not high. What is more gratifying is that the paper machine with an annual output of 180000 tons of Shiyan paper was put into operation in October this year; In June next year, Huatai will put into operation a new equipment with an annual output of 200000 tons; By the end of next year, Heilong group and Yueyang Paper Co., Ltd. will each have one 180000 ton new equipment put into operation; Guangxi jindaxing Paper Industry Co., Ltd. will also have two 60000 ton paper machines put into production next year. With the successive production of these new paper machines, the quantity of high-quality paper will occupy the absolute mainstream position in China's paper market and greatly promote the improvement of paper printing quality

at present, the domestic paper market is still oversupplied, and the overall balance is basically balanced. According to relevant statistics, the output of large and medium-sized paper enterprises in China this year is about 2.01 million tons, especially the precursor is easy to absorb moisture into jelly during storage and use. The output of the small paper mill is about 277000 tons, and it is estimated that 150000-160000 tons of paper will be imported (143500 tons have been imported in the month), that is, the market and supply of paper this year will be 2.42 million tons. According to the statistics of the General Administration of publication on the circulation of newspapers, it is estimated that the circulation of newspapers nationwide in 2002 will be 93.9 billion pairs. Considering the weight of paper, the pilot project of high-yield corn will be carried out. The annual paper consumption is 1.9-1.95 million tons, which is more optimistic than the 1.75-1.85 million tons proposed at the Xi'an meeting. This year, the supply of the paper market is theoretically more than 20% greater than the demand. However, due to a variety of factors, some paper machines are under operation, and some are in the state of shutdown or semi shutdown; In addition, most paper mills have opened new paper machines and stopped the old ones. In addition, some of the imported 150000 tons of paper are still on sale and are not in the hands of users, and some newspapers are expanded irregularly. Based on various conditions, the paper market is basically balanced between supply and demand this year

the price of domestic paper tends to be stable. The price of paper is the same as that of other commodities. Due to the role and influence of the relationship between supply and demand, as well as the fact that both sides of the paper newspaper value the contract, abide by the credibility, consciously act according to the market rules, and pay attention to maintaining the market order, new products continue to appear. The annual paper market price tends to be stable, lower than the price of similar imported paper. The small number of imported paper this year is enough to prove that China's paper market is more healthy and orderly

this year's paper market trend

industry insiders speculate that in 2003, domestic paper will still be oversupplied, and the overall balance is basically balanced. Enterprises should pay attention to the increase of uncertain factors

the general situation of the domestic paper market this year is as follows: the production capacity of large and medium-sized paper mills is about 2.47 million tons, the production capacity of small paper mills is about 450000 tons, and the import is expected to remain at about 150000 tons, that is, the total supply is about 3.07 million tons. Let's take another look at the demand. According to the statistics of the General Administration of publication on newspaper distribution, the total circulation of newspapers nationwide in 2003 was 105.1 billion pairs. Considering the weight of paper, the annual paper consumption was 2.15-2.2 million tons, which was far lower than the supply

however, from the microscopic point of view, there are still some uncertain factors, which should arouse our attention. Papermaking is inseparable from wood pulp. At present, China's paper industry is highly dependent on imported wood pulp. It is unknown whether the international water pulp price will continue to rebound this year. It is reported that the price of American waste has increased by US dollars on the 8th and 9th, while the main raw material of new equipment in China is American waste. The rise in the price of American waste has increased the cost of paper. It remains to be verified how far the paper mill can afford it and how long it can afford it; In addition, we should comprehensively consider the role and impact of the US economy on the global economy, especially on China's paper market; Moreover, in accordance with China's commitment to join the WTO, the tariff on imported paper will be reduced to a certain extent next year, and the paper anti-dumping act will also expire. The impact of changes in the price of imported paper on China's paper industry should be fully considered so that the aggregate is not exposed

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