Analysis and forecast on the future market of styr

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Analysis and forecast of the future market situation of styrene at home and abroad:

positive factors:

1. ABS, PS, EPS, UPR in the downstream of styrene, or even no other red light except "high pressure" is on until the start of SBL, all remain at a high level. Therefore, the transmission of styrene to the downstream can be simply said that there is no problem with the release of product prohibition, and the downstream does not resist the current price

2. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. has 620000 tons/year of ethyl benzene, but the Group believes that there is a great possibility that the alkene plant will not start up in May; Tianjin Dagu 500000 T/a plant was also shut down in May; Iran's pars resources, which were in trouble in April, also ceased in May, and no new inflow has been seen for the time being; What is more unexpected is that the 60000 T/a Fushun Petrochemical plant will be shut down for half a year, resulting in structural shortage in Northeast and North China. Meanwhile, the 60000 T/a Jinxi Petrochemical plant has not been started yet, and the supply of goods in North China will be tight to some extent in may

negative factors:

1. The international oil price plummeted continuously, from $86.19/barrel to $77.11/ton, a drop of nearly 10%. The styrene market confidence was severely hit, and pessimism appeared

2. After experiencing a high level for two months, the port's spot inventory is expected to slowly decline to the normal level in May. However, the downstream procurement volume has not been enlarged, and it is still used and purchased at the same time. It is almost impossible to fall to the normal inventory level in the short term

3. On May 7, all refineries under Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan/ton to 7800 yuan/ton. In addition, the high price of ethylene outer disk fell slightly, weakening the cost support for styrene

may 17-21 analysis and Forecast: Recently, the crude oil market has plummeted continuously, and the low transaction volume in the pure benzene market is an important factor restricting the upward market. However, under the background that the downstream market is slow to digest and the market unit price is difficult to make a difference, it is difficult for traders to obtain the expected market benefits in this difficult game in the domestic market. However, from May 10 to May 14, the market was finally favorable after the long and short factors. In May, the shutdown or maintenance of styrene units in some refineries made traders welcome the long lost sunshine. The other is that at the end of May and the beginning of June, 20000 tons of styrene in Asia will be transported to the European market for digestion, which may lead a small amount of low-pressure oil to the oil tank as a highlight of the recent market. It is expected that the styrene market will gradually rebound next week

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