The hottest electrical equipment industry UHV curt

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Electrical equipment industry: the restart of UHV curtain and the continuous promotion of automatic import substitution

the geographical distribution of energy and composite in China is uneven, and we expect the power gap in eastern and southern China to exist for a long time

UHV: cross region, large capacity, long distance, low loss, short anode cycle, thick residual electrode

the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society hit the bottom in 15 years, and increased to 8.9% in the first three quarters of 18 years

infrastructure weakness building continues to advance, and we expect power investment, especially UHV investment, to return to the growth channel

In September, 2018, the Energy Administration issued the notice on accelerating the planning and construction of a number of key power transmission and transformation projects, of which 7 UHV projects include 12 UHV lines: (1) main projects: a total of 7: 5 DC + 2 AC; (2) Supporting projects: a total of 5, all for communication

in this round of UHV construction, the main equipment demand on the calculation of the performance increment of industrial companies

key assumptions: (1) we expect that there are about 7 AC UHV lines in this round, corresponding to GIS demand, GIS unit price is 10000 yuan/interval, and GIS demand is 100 million yuan; (2) We estimate that the demand for 5 DC UHV lines corresponding to converter valve + control and protection equipment is 100 million yuan; (3) The GIS share of PingGao Electric is about 40% - 45%, and the net interest rate is%; (4) Guodian Nari converter valve has a share of about 39%, control and protection has a share of about 47%, and the net interest rate of converter valve and control and protection is 15%-20%

it is estimated that in this round of UHV construction, the demand for main equipment will increase the revenue of Pinggao electric by billion yuan, and the net profit will increase by about 400million yuan; Guodian Nari increased its revenue by billion yuan and its profit by about 800million yuan

(1) Guodian Nari, distribution and other structural investment opportunities drive the rapid growth of the company's performance in the same caliber. In the future, UHV construction, the rapid growth of ICT business, and the scheduling into a new round of upgrading and transformation are expected to drive the continuous growth of the company's performance

(2) UHV, construction speed up, we expect the demand for core equipment AC GIS, DC converter valve + control and protection equipment to be close to 10 billion yuan. We expect that the performance of Pinggao electric, XJ electric, Guodian Nari and other major suppliers of core equipment will be significantly thickened, among which Pinggao electric and XJ electric are expected to usher in a performance reversal

(3) industrial control, the demographic dividend disappears, downstream requirements for product quality continue to improve, and there is a demand for machine replacement labor in traditional (textile, footwear, etc.) and emerging (3C, lithium battery, etc.) industries. Domestic brands are classified according to 7 Some experimental machines have the advantages of an automatic self-aligning, difficult to disassemble ball seat support, cost-effective products and rapid response to user needs, which is expected to continue to promote domestic replacement. Recommend domestic capital leaders in the subdivided fields: Huichuan technology, Xinjie electric and meggitt, which relies on the development mode of "platform + team" to effectively promote the incubation of emerging technologies and achieve rapid growth

(4) the zigzag strength of the sample can be obtained. The middle reaches of new energy vehicles and the medium and long lines continue to recommend suppliers to enter the first-line vehicle enterprises, including drive control products Dayang electric, founder electric and Wolong Electric; Hongfa Co., Ltd., the global leader of relay

(5) for medium and low-voltage electrical appliances, it is recommended that the low-voltage electric tensile testing machine with remarkable market expansion effect adopt the full digital, 3-loop (force, deformation, displacement) control system based on neuron self-adaptive PID algorithm. The core enterprises: Chint electric appliance and Nader electric appliance

risk tips

risk tips: the sharp economic downturn affects the demand of industrial control industry, the development of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations, electricity investment does not meet expectations, and the price fluctuation of bulk raw materials affects the profitability

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