Electrical equipment: waiting for 6 shares of hot money recommendation
■: not afraid of the decline of subsidies, waiting for the volume of hot money. Since the release of the new subsidy policy in 2018, car companies have followed the policy adjustment to upgrade their product strategies, and models with high mileage/high cost performance have been launched one after another. According to the passenger car Association, in terms of PHEV sales, the top 10 in the first 10 months are basically self owned brands. Different from previous years, there are two joint venture high-end models in the list, bmw530le, which ranks sixth, and BMWX1, which ranks eighth. The cumulative sales are 10392 and 5834 respectively. In terms of EV sales, velai es8 has delivered 6766 vehicles in total, and 2500 vehicles are expected to be delivered every month in November and December, reaching the annual target of 10000 vehicles in total; Roewe Marvel delivered 1022 vehicles in October, with a month on month increase of 429.53%. It is expected that the high growth trend will continue in November and December. The downstream middle and high-end products continue to increase in volume, and the consumer concept continues to upgrade. Automotive products gain a higher brand premium ability by improving brand image, reduce the dependence on subsidies, and realize the new energy vehicles from subsidy driven to consumption driven. With the implementation of the double credit system policy, waiting for the explosion of new energy vehicles in the downstream, the industry demand is expected to achieve a high-speed growth of more than 40% in 2019/2020
in addition, the group plans to launch more than 30 new energy models by 2020, half of which will be produced locally in China. In China, Volkswagen plans to produce 400000 electric vehicles by 2020 and 1.5 million by 2025
Audi also announced the strategic layout of localization of electric vehicles: 15 billion yuan will be invested in four years, and FAW will introduce 40 domestic electric vehicles in the next eight years. Teslamodel3 will also be localized by the end of 2019. In the future, the continuous launch of downstream medium and high-end products will continue to improve the consumption pattern of the new energy vehicle market and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the industry
investment suggestions: pay attention to three main lines: 1) centralization: at present, we are optimistic about lithium battery faucets with stronger pressure resistance, with key recommendations: Ningde times, (,); 2) High nickel: at present, the research and development progress of ncm811 is slightly higher than expected, and 18/19 is expected to become an excess profit year of high nickel. Key recommendations: (,), (,), (,); 3) Globalization: mainly recommend putailai, Xusheng shares, Enjie shares, Xingyuan materials, new Zebang, (,), Sanhua intelligent control, etc; ■ new energy: it is estimated that the cost of photovoltaic modules can be reduced to 1 yuan/w in 2022. Recently, Wang Bohua, vice president and Secretary General of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the utilization of monthly production capacity at the manufacturing end was significantly differentiated. The utilization rate of large enterprises remained above 70% throughout the year, while that of small enterprises was less than 50%. According to the domestic market situation, the newly installed capacity of the samples of Guoru medical rubber gloves in the month is about 36gw, the cumulative installed capacity is more than 165gw, and the deviation from the standard value is very close, with a centralized decrease of about 40%. In the first three quarters, the distribution increased by only 2%. International market conditions, import and export showed a growth trend in August. The growth rate was 14.6%. Since last year, the export volume has gone out of negative growth for the first time. Silicon and battery chips showed an increase in bid reduction. The export value and export volume of components increased. The export volume of components has risen by 80%, which has exceeded the export volume of last year in September. In terms of price trend, prices at the four manufacturing ends of the industrial chain fell very fast at the same time. Among them, Longji, a typical manufacturer, reduced prices nine times a year. Wang Bohua said that the industrial development speed is very fast. In 2022, the component cost can be reduced to 1 yuan/w
it is estimated that there will still be a decrease of about 30% in 2022, mainly in technology. In terms of technology trends, the conversion efficiency record will be updated and accelerated. Wang Bohua pointed out that at present, the industry is already facing a new situation. Now it is more important to strive for quality. The current policy situation is also very different from that before. Only by facing the new situation can the industry develop rapidly and healthily
investment suggestion: the quota system is expected to accelerate the implementation, so as to effectively promote the healthy development of the industry. Then we can judge that the sensor has been normal, and the consumption level of renewable energy has been increased. At the same time, the green card will also effectively alleviate the pressure of subsidy arrears, and ensure the long-term development space of wind power and photovoltaic from the system. Key recommendations for wind power (,), (,); Photovoltaic highlights (,), (,), (,), (,) and Linyang energy, etc
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